Cubans fear life after Fidel Castro with Donald Trump next door.

Hawaii Intelligence Digest, 28 November 2016, 01:45 hrs, UTC, Post #39.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/fidel-castro-dead-cuba-donald-trump-embargo-diplomacy-a7442366.html

Reporter:  Ana Isabel Martinez (The Independent)

Accessed on 28 November 2016, 01:45 hrs, UTC.

Please click link to read the full article.

Comment:

Interesting article from reporter Ana Isabel Martinez of the UK-based newspaper, “The Independent.”

According to Ms. Martinez Cuban citizens are worried that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump “will slam the door shut on nascent trade and travel ties under two years of detente with the United States under Mr. Obama.”  Cubans wish that Fidel Castro was around to confront Mr. Trump’s “bombast.”

Kellyanne Conway, the senior advisor to Mr. Trump, tells NBC’s “Meet the Press” that “None of that has been decided…the President-elect will make these decision once he takes office.”

On “Fox News Sunday“, Reince Priebus, Mr. Trump’s chief of staff, said Mr. Trump will honor the commitments made by outgoing President Barack Obama if Cuba‘s communist government allows more political freedom on the island.  If that isn’t forthcoming, then Mr. Trump will “roll back” the agreement.

Opinion:

It may be a bit premature for Cubans to get overly excited about Mr. Trump’s treatment of Cuba.  Mr. Trump isn’t president yet.  That election won’t be sealed until 16 December 2016 when the Electoral College formally votes in each state capital.  Those opposed to Mr. Trump, including the Green Party and disaffected Democrats, have obtained permission to hold vote recounts in several states, including Wisconsin, where Mr. Trump squeezed by Ms. Clinton by only 27,000 votes.  If Mr. Trump loses a few more states, he won’t be president.  If the vote is especially close and the Electoral College deadlocks, the election could be decided by the U.S. House of Representatives. That particular turn of events happened in 1820. Another election “agreement” happened in 1876 where the Democrat candidate Tilden agreed to give the election to the Republican candidate Hayes in exchange for removing federal troops from southern states following the Civil War (1861-1865).  Mr. Trump is well aware of how to “make a deal” in such situations.

It may be advisable for our Cuban friends to restrain their fears for awhile, at least until Mr. Trump is confirmed or rejected by the Electoral College.

No matter who wins the confidence of the Electoral College or the U.S. House of Representatives, the new President will face a badly divided country and a thoroughly confused world beyond our borders. Considering the massive domestic problems facing a “brokered” President, there may be little time to consider how the United States will relate diplomatically to Cuba and other states.  This unsettling state of affairs will provide our adversaries with many opportunities to exploit our weaknesses and divisions.  The next four years will be a rough ride for most Americans.  Cuba has managed to survive our presence over the past 57 years.  It will continue to survive with or without us.

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Opinions expressed in this blog are mine unless otherwise stated.

Thanks for joining us today!

Until next time,

Russell Roberts

Hawaii Intelligence Digest

 

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