Hawaii Intelligence Digest, 03 December 2016, 20:00 hrs, UTC, Post #44.
Author: Armin Rosen (“Business Insider“).
Please click link to read the full Stratfor analysis for the next decade.
A stunning geopolitical analysis produced by the well-respected “Stratfor Forecasting” team has shaken up intelligence experts from Washington to Moscow. The hard-hitting report is stunning, shocking, and most unpleasant for those of us desiring a relatively peaceful world.
Here are the main points of the study:
The Russian Federation will collapse over the next 10 years.
The U.S. “will have to use its military to secure Russia’s nuclear arsenal” before it falls into the hands of extremists and terrorists.
Germany will experience severe economic stress from a worsening euro crisis and “the resulting wave of euroscepticism.”
Poland will become one of Europe’s leading economic powers as German influence declines.
There will be four Europes as the decade continues–Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, and the United Kingdom.
China will face a growing political disaster with the Communist Party losing favor with the populace. Look for more internal repression in the years ahead.
In response to China’s growing military threat in the South China Sea, Japan will become Asia’s rising naval power.
There will be 16 “mini-China’s” vying for economic influence. Among them will be Mexico, Nicaragua, Vietnam, Peru, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
The South China Sea islands being reinforced by China “will be a symptom of a hazardous power dynamic.”
Turkey and the United States will be forced to work with each other, partly as “a link of defense against a certain powerful and aggressive-minded country on the other side of the Black Sea.” That would be the Russian Federation or whatever succeeds the current government in Moscow.
U.S. power will slowly decline as the nation picks its challenges carefully and cedes the role of “universal policeman” to some other nation or entity. As the country becomes more fuel and resource self-sufficient, policy decisions based on purely economic issues will be reduced.
Stratfor intelligence analysts have rarely been wrong. Their input has gained the ear of presidents and Congress for decades, so Stratfor has an excellent record of anticipating what will come in the geopolitical area. Whether the U.S. government will listen and plan accordingly is an issue for another time. But for now, Stratfor has given us a “hard-nosed” look at what our international role will be in the decade ahead. The coming years will be challenging and often frightening. Are you or our leaders up to the task? Just ask the millions of American citizens who chose not to vote in this past election. Such indifference and ignorance will exact a heavy price.
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Opinions expressed in this blog are mine unless otherwise stated.
Until next time,
Hawaii Intelligence Digest