Hawaii Intelligence Digest, 04 January 2017, 15:30 hrs, UTC, Post #73
“Understanding America’s Global Role in the Age of Trump is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Accessed on 04 January 2017, 15:30 hrs, UTC.
Reporter: Roger Baker (Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence).
Please click link to read the full report.
The weekly intelligence assessment from reporter Roger Baker raises some interesting questions about the new role the United States will play on the international stage once President-elect Donald Trump assumes office on 20 January 2017.
Baker notes that “the pendulum often swings widely from previous administrations before making it back toward the center.” Such will be the case for Donald Trump who will try to assume the mantle of “Peace Through Strength” popularized by the 1980s presidency of Ronald Reagan. Expect Trump to encourage a major buildup in our armed forces, while at the same time choosing international battles carefully. Domestically, Mr. Trump will downplay some of the social programs instituted during Mr. Obama‘s terms, with those resources being allocated to defense and security imperatives.
On the international stage, expect some pullback from our commitments to regional conflicts, with Russia and China rushing in to play matchmakers for “peace.” According to Stratfor analyst Roger Baker, the United States will make accommodations with the growing economic and military expansion of regional powers, such as Russia, China, India, and Iran. The United States is coming to the realization that its influence will be limited as regional powers strike their own alliances–often to the detriment of the U.S.
According to reporter Baker, this is the future the United States will face in the Trump administration:
“Many worldwide argue that the United States should no longer be the default global leader, that other countries have the right to take their turn at broader international leadership, and that U.S. ideals are not universal and so should not be asserted as such. The diffusion of global power is also creating a diffusion of global ideals. Global and domestic resistance to perceived over-globalization is strong, and the ability of the United States to assert its ideals and its right to lead the global system is increasingly challenged from without and within.
In relative strength, the United States is losing ground, particularly by measures from the beginning of the post-Cold War period. But that does not mean that any other single power will soon overtake the United States. The United States remains the single largest economy and the single most powerful military force in the world. The question is perhaps not whether the United States has strength, but how it intends to apply that strength, and whether the United States has vision beyond itself.