Hawaii Intelligence Digest, 12 January 2017, 06:45 hrs, UTC, Post #81.
This article used with permission of Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence.
Accessed on 12 January 2017, 06:45 hrs, UTC.
Please click link to read the full report and analysis.
A sobering, straight-forward analysis of the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict from Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence.
The report traces the history of the conflict and reaches three conclusions:
“Internal fracturing” on both sides of the conflict and severe disagreements for its resolution will defeat the peace process before it begins anew in 2017.
However, evolving economic interests in the region and a growing fear of Iran will delay a significant shift in these nations’ support for a strong Palestinian Authority.
According to Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence, Mr. Trump’s support for Russia and Israel will lead to some complicated, often uncomfortable diplomatic struggles in the region:
“As the peace process continues to flounder, Donald Trump is preparing to assume the U.S. presidency. Trump and his pick for the new U.S. ambassador to Israel have criticized President Barack Obama’s stance toward the country and pledged to increase their support for Israel and its activities in the West Bank. Although Israeli leaders from across the political spectrum have embraced the incoming administration, Trump’s policies toward Israel will not have much effect on its conflict with the Palestinian Authority. If Trump follows through on his promise to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, he risks provoking backlash from Middle Eastern countries that support the Palestinian Authority. But most of these states are reluctant to jeopardize their interests by confronting Israel or the United States.”
So, unless there is a dramatic breakthrough at the next peace conference, the uneasy and often violent relationship between Israel and the Palestinian Authority will continue. Look for more violence as Israel plans for more settlement in the disputed West Bank area. There will be no resolution of this issue for the foreseeable future.
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Hawaii Intelligence Digest