Hawaii Intelligence Digest, 24 January 2017, 05:50 hrs, UTC, Post #91.
Reporter: Matthew Bey (“Stratfor Geointelligence”).
Accessed on 24 January 2017, 05:50 hrs, UTC.
Please click link to read the full analysis.
The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States may signal another round of trade disputes between the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) and the United States. Mr. Trump has made no secret of his opposition to Chinese economic practices and promises to pursue “An American First” policy in matters of trade. Because Chinese-American trade is growing to dominate the world economy, nations aligned on either side of the debate are justifiably concerned how the fragile trade relationship between China and the U.S. will play out.
According to Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence analyst Matthew Bey, Mr. Trump is…poised to take a much harder line on trade with China…The next four years will almost certainly bring more investigations into China’s export and domestic policies and more aggressive interpretations of World Trade Organization (WTO) regulations and U.S. law over Beijing’s practices.” Basically, China and the Untied States “are on diverging paths.”
This simmering trade disagreement could not have come at a worse time for China, which “is in the midst of its most difficult economic transition since the Chinese Economic Miracle began in the 1970s.” The growing economic uncertainty in China coupled with Chinese expansion into the South China Sea and Africa could precipitate a dangerous economic struggle with the United States, perhaps ending in direct military confrontation between the two world powers.
Correspondent Matthew Bey believes the crisis will only deepen in the months ahead:
“Over the next four years, trade will become the focus of the United States’ relationship with China–a relationship that will likely come under renewed strain as the next administration re-evaluates various aspects of Washington’s policy toward Beijing. In the meantime, the countless countries and companies that hang in the balance will hold their breath and wait for clarity on the future of the world’s most important trade relationship.”
Our relationship with an expanding Chinese hegemon will present some high risk strategies for both countries. The margin for error is slim, with hostilities a definite possibility in the South China Sea, where China is extending its military presence.
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Hawaii Intelligence Digest