Hawaii Intelligence Digest, 27 March 2017, 20:55 hrs, UTC, Post #153.
Accessed on 27 March 2017, 20:55 hrs, UTC.
Reporter: Stratfor Intelligence–Geopolitical Diary for 22 March 2017.
Please click link to read the full report from Stratfor Intelligence.
U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to destroy the Islamic State in Syria and in Iraq. So far, Mr. Trump has kept his word as U.S. support continues for offensives against Mosul, Iraq and Raqqa, Syria. Defeat of the extremist Islamic State has become the major foreign policy thrust of the Trump administration. When ISIS/ISIL is finally broken up and its survivors flee into the desert, another question arises–what happens after the offensives in Mosul and Raqqa? To date, no official sources seem willing to discuss the aftermath of the approaching collapse of ISIS/ISIL. The reconstruction of the region following this bloody conflict will be fraught with danger and diplomatic crises.
Here’s the sobering analysis from Stratfor Intelligence:
“The global coalition has its work cut out for it in the military campaigns that lie ahead. Compared with the more clear-cut tactical aspects of the effort to rid Mosul and Raqqa of the Islamic State, however, the task of stabilizing the territories in the group’s wake is far murkier. And the more progress the countries fighting the Islamic State make on the battlefield, the starker the divisions among them become. As Washington focuses on combating the extremist group in Mosul and Raqqa, questions over how to divvy up political power in those cities, foster economic growth, prevent radicalization and provide for victims of the violence loom large. Each member of the global coalition against the Islamic State has a different answer, as do the regional and local actors involved in the fight.”
The defeat of the Islamic State is only the beginning of another difficult geopolitical transition for this war-torn region. The Syrian Civil War remains unresolved, and that conflict could last a long time, especially with Syria getting support from Iran and The Russian Federation. Russia will demand, and may get, a more commanding role in deciding the fate of the Middle East. As Stratfor Intelligence suggests, “the task of stabilizing the territories…is far murkier.” The United States may remain active in the Middle East for years to come.
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Hawaii Intelligence Digest