The Key to Countering Iran

Hawaii Intelligence Digest, 18 October 2017, 2015 UTC, Post #327.


Accessed on 18 October 2017, 2015 UTC.

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Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence has done an excellent job of analyzing the growing diplomatic crises between The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States.  In Stratfor’s view, the decision to forego approval of the Iran nuclear deal, the imposition of stronger economic sanctions, and the labeling of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization are foreign policy mistakes that will create immense “blowback from Iran.”

Rather than encourage more at home opposition to the theocratic rulers of Iran, the new sanctions imposed by the Trump administration will only unite Iran’s disaffected political groups behind the Revolutionary Guards and encourage more attacks against U.S. forces serving in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Stratfor draws three conclusions from what may be called a “diplomatic blunder” by the United States:

  • “Political and economic pressure from the United States will unite Iran’s fractious political system behind the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which lies at the heart of Tehran’s regional strategy.
  • Washington’s recent addition of the IRGC to the Treasury Department’s list of terrorist groups probably won’t have a substantial impact on the organization’s ability to fund itself and allied militant groups across the Middle East.
  • In response to the U.S. decision, Iran will boost its military and political support for the IRGC by expanding its budget for asymmetric operations, including the activities of the elite Quds Force and ballistic missile development.”

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Russell Roberts

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